Until about 30 to 50 years ago, urban development primarily concentrated in mid- to high-latitude regions such as the United States and Europe. In recent years, however, rapid economic growth has driven accelerated urbanization in Southeast and South Asia. Previous studies have revealed that the impact of urbanization on climate (urban effects) varies significantly depending on the form of the city and the climatic zone in which it is located.
Currently, the Kusaka Laboratory is conducting research on urban climates in major cities of Southeast Asia, including Jakarta (Indonesia), Bangkok (Thailand), and Manila (Philippines)—so-called "megacities"—as well as Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam), Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), and Singapore. This research goes beyond simply evaluating the presence or absence of urban areas; it includes comparisons between past and present urban climates using historical land use data, and projections of future urbanization and associated climate changes based on national urban development master plans.
Some of these studies are collaborating with institutions such as the Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration (NCHMF) and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), with regular meetings to ensure close information sharing.
The Kusaka Laboratory has also hosted many international students from countries such as China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka, each conducting urban climate research focused on their respective home countries. As a result, the urban climates of Southeast and South Asia have become one of the laboratory’s core research themes.
Urban Heat Island (UHI) Intensified by Urbanization
In recent years, Southeast Asian cities experiencing rapid economic development have shown a growing trend of intensified urban heat island (UHI) effects, accompanied by rising urban temperatures. Doan and Kusaka (2016) evaluated the impact of urbanization over the past two decades in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, where rapid urban growth is underway. Their study found that air temperatures increased by approximately 0.3°C in existing urban areas and by about 0.6°C in newly urbanized areas.
Furthermore, based on a future urban development master plan, Doan et al. (2016) simulated future temperature changes under continued urbanization. The simulation projected surface air temperature increases of about 0.22°C in existing urban zones and approximately 0.41°C in emerging urban zones, indicating a likely further intensification of the UHI effect.
Changes in Surface Air Temperature in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
(a) Surface meteorological observations, (b) Surface air temperature of the current city (2010),
(c) Surface air temperature of the future city (2030), (d) Temperature difference between future and current cities.
Adapted from Doan et al. (2016, Urban Climate)
Urban Impacts During Heatwaves
In recent years, tropical regions have experienced frequent heatwaves—periods of extreme high temperatures lasting for three or more consecutive days—leading to reported human casualties. While the impacts of heatwaves in tropical cities have not been thoroughly discussed until recently, the Kusaka Laboratory is actively addressing this issue as a key research focus.
In Manila, one of Southeast Asia’s megacities, Magnaye and Kusaka (2024) conducted a study using high-density observational data and an improved version of the WRF model. Their results revealed that urban heat island intensity (UHII) could reach up to 4°C, and that anthropogenic heat emissions from urban areas contributed approximately 10% to the UHII.
For Kuala Lumpur, a city with a tropical rainforest climate, Syed Mahbar and Kusaka (2024) investigated changes in UHII before, during, and after heatwave events. Based on surface meteorological observations and WRF simulations, their findings showed that UHII intensified significantly during heatwaves compared to normal conditions.
In Colombo, a tropical city in South Asia, the urban thermal environment during heatwaves was strongly shaped by urbanization (Sathsara and Kusaka, 2025). The study also highlighted that accurately capturing the thermal environment during heatwave periods required the use of more recent and high-resolution land cover data.
Urban Effects on Surface Air Temperature During Heatwaves in Manila, the Philippines
At 15:00 local time: (a) Urban - non-urban, (b) Urban with anthropogenic heat (AH) - urban without AH.
At 06:00 local time: (c) Urban - non-urban, (d) Urban with AH - urban without AH.
Urban Heat Island Intensity in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
(Left) During a heatwave
(Right) Before the heatwave onset
Land Surface Temperature During a Heatwave in Colombo, Sri Lanka
From left to right: (LU4) High-resolution land use in 2022, (LU3) Around 2010,
(LU2) Around 2000, (LU1) Around 1994, (Himawari) Land surface temperature observed by Himawari-8 satellite.
Increased Cloud Cover Over Urban Areas
Urban areas tend to experience increased cloud cover, as demonstrated in previous studies focusing on cities such as Tokyo and London. At the Kusaka Laboratory, we investigated the hypothesis that a similar phenomenon may occur in tropical cities as well.
Syed Mahbar and Kusaka (2024) analyzed cloud characteristics in Kuala Lumpur, a major city with a tropical rainforest climate. The results showed that on hot and clear days, cloud cover tended to be greater over the urban area compared to surrounding regions.
Cloud Occurrence Frequency Distribution in Kuala Lumpur from June to August
(a) Number of cloud occurrences at 10:00 LT, (b) at 15:00 LT, (c) at 18:00 LT.
Magnaye, A.M.T., and H. Kusaka, 2024: Potential effect of urbanization on extreme heat events in Metro Manila Philippines using WRF-UCM. Sustainable Cities and Society, 110, 105584. (DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2024.105584) PDF
Magnaye, A. M. T. and H. Kusaka, 2025: Enhancing Numerical Simulation Accuracy for Extreme Heat Events in Metro Manila. SOLA, 21, 76-84. (DOI:https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2025-010) PDF
Mahbar, S. F. S., and H. Kusaka, 2024: Synergistic interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves in the Greater Kuala Lumpur and surrounding areas. International Journal of Climatology, 44, 4886-4906. (DOI:10.1002/joc.8614) PDF
Mahbar, S. F. S., and H. Kusaka, 2024: Urbanisation increases cloudiness over Greater Kuala Lumpur during southwest and northeast monsoons. Weather, Early View. (DOI:10.1002/wea.7644) PDF
Doan, Q. V., and H. Kusaka, 2016: Numerical study on regional climate change due to the rapid urbanization of greater Ho Chi Minh City's metropolitan area over the past 20 years. International Journal of Climatology, 36(10), 3633–3650. (DOI:10.1002/joc.4582) PDF
Doan, Q. V., H. Kusaka, and Q. B. Ho, 2016: Impact of future urbanization on temperature and thermal comfort index in a developing tropical city: Ho Chi Minh City. Urban Climate, 17, 20-31. (DOI:10.1016/j.uclim.2016.04.003) PDF
Dang, T. N., Q. V. Doan, H. Kusaka, T. S. Xerxes, and Y. Honda, 2018: Green Space and Deaths Attributable to the Urban Heat Island Effect in Ho Chi Minh City. A Publication of the American Public Health Association, 108(52), S139-S143. (DOI:10.2105/AJPH.2017.304123) PDF
Doan, Q. V., and H. Kusaka, 2018: Projections of Urban Climate in the 2050s in a Fast-Growing City in Southeast Asia: the Greater Ho Chi Minh City Metropolitan Area, Vietnam. International Journal of Climatology, 38(11), 4155-4171. (DOI:10.1002/joc.5559) PDF
Doan, Q. V., H. Kusaka, and T. M. Nguyen, 2019: Roles of past, present, and future land use and anthropogenic heat release changes on urban heat island effects in Hanoi, Vietnam: Numerical experiments with a regional climate model. Sustainable Cities and Society, 47, 101479. (DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2019.101479) PDF
Doan, Q. V., F. Chen, H. Kusaka, A. Dipankar, A. Khan, R. Hamdi, M. Roth, and D. Niyogi 2022: Increased Risk of Extreme Precipitation over an Urban Agglomeration with Future Global Warming. Earth's Future, 10(6), e2021EF002563. (DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002563) PDF
Doan, Q. V., F. Chen, Y. Asano, Y. Gu, A. Nishi, H. Kusaka, and D. Niyogi, 2022: Causes for asymmetric warming of sub‐diurnal temperature responding to global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL100029. (DOI:10.1029/2022GL100029) PDF
Sathsara, K. T. L. and H. Kusaka, 2025: Impact of high-resolution land use data on numerical simulations of Colombo’s thermal environment during heatwaves. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 156, 106. (DOI:10.1007/s00704-024-05242-9) PDF
(Written by: Nobuyasu Suzuki; Edited by: Coty CHENG)
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