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The large growth effects of educational performance imply that low educational performance is very costly to society. Based on the relationship between educational performance and economic growth, we can perform projections of the future growth paths of the economy with given and improved educational performance. The thus calculated economic costs of low educational performance in terms of foregone future growth are stunning: For example, the projections for the United States suggest that in the long run (over the expected lifetime of a child born today), an increase in educational performance by 25 PISA points would imply 62 trillion dollar worth of additional GDP. This is equivalent to an increase in discounted future GDP over the period of 7.3%.
The potential economic gains are even larger in developing countries. In this, the projected gains from improving the current quality of schools are substantially larger than those from expanding enrollment at the current quality. As a consequence, the primary development goal should be that all youth around the world achieve at least basic skills. The importance of such a goal of universal basic skills for inclusive world development would be immense.
Research papers:
Research papers:
A Quantitative Look at the Economic Impact of the European Union’s Educational Goals (with E.A. Hanushek). Education Economics 28 (3): 225-244, 2020
How Much Do Educational Outcomes Matter in OECD Countries? (with E.A. Hanushek). Economic Policy 26 (67): 427-491, 2011
The Economic Benefit of Educational Reform in the European Union (with E.A. Hanushek). CESifo Economic Studies 58 (1): 73-109, 2012
The projections of costs of low educational performance were published in three reports:
The projections of costs of low educational performance were published in three reports:
Universal Basic Skills: What Countries Stand to Gain (with E.A. Hanushek). Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2015
Costs of low educational achievement with a focus on developing countries and the development goal of universal basic education
The High Cost of Low Educational Performance: The Long-Run Economic Impact of Improving PISA Outcomes (with E.A. Hanushek). Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2010
Costs of low educational achievement in developed countries
Was unzureichende Bildung kostet: Eine Berechnung der Folgekosten durch entgangenes Wirtschaftswachstum (with M. Piopiunik). Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2009
An early study on the costs of low educational performance in Germany
Short contributions on the projections with reference to developing countries:
Short contributions on the projections with reference to developing countries:
Teach the World: Why the UN Sustainable Development Goals Should Focus on Education (with E.A. Hanushek). foreignaffairs.com, 20.8.2015
Teach All Young People Universal Basic Skills by 2030 – It Will Give Huge Boost to GDP (with E.A. Hanushek). The Conversation UK, 18.5.2015
A two-pager focused on Europe:
The Cost of Low Educational Achievement in the European Union (with E.A. Hanushek). EENEE Policy Brief 1/2011
Non-technical contribution:
Non-technical contribution:
Universal Basic Skills Should Become the Primary Development Goal (with E.A. Hanushek). VOX, 24.5.2015
Material available only in German
Material available only in German
Research paper:
Research paper:
Volkswirtschaftliche Erträge wirksamer Bildungsreformen zur Reduktion der Zahl der Risikoschüler (with M. Piopiunik). Zeitschrift für Erziehungswissenschaft 17 (2S): 393-416, 2014
Report:
Report:
Was unzureichende Bildung kostet: Eine Berechnung der Folgekosten durch entgangenes Wirtschaftswachstum (with M. Piopiunik). Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2009
An early study on the costs of low educational performance in Germany
Contribution on our research results:
Contribution on our research results:
Gute Schulen sind der beste Weg zu höherem Wohlstand. "Wissenswert"-Beitrag im Handelsblatt vom 3.11.2011 über unsere Forschung zu den Wohlstandsgewinnen besserer Bildung
Non-technical contributions:
Non-technical contributions:
Das zentrale Entwicklungsziel sollten Grundkompetenzen für alle Kinder sein (with E.A. Hanushek). ifo Schnelldienst 68 (10): 27-31, 2015
A short version of the early study on Germany:
Volkswirtschaftliche Folgekosten unzureichender Bildung: Eine makroökonomische Projektion (with M. Piopiunik). ifo Schnelldienst 63 (4): 24-30, 2010
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