Published Papers (reverse chronological)
Published Papers (reverse chronological)
Finish It and It's Free: An Evaluation of College Graduation Subsidies (with Matthew D. Webb).
Economics of Education Review, 93, 102355, 2023.
Abstract: Despite the rapid increase in the returns to higher education witnessed in the labor market over the past few decades, there has also been a marked increase in the share of individuals who drop out of college or university. Several Canadian provincial governments introduced graduate retention tax credits available to students after their graduation. Credit availability was tied to where students attained their education with the aim to increase the local stock of human capital by discouraging cross-province migration. We analyse the efficacy of the graduate retention tax credits using confidential data from both administrative tax records and longitudinal surveys within a difference-in-differences framework. Graduate retention credits were not found to robustly decrease internal migration, but did reduce the interest paid on loans by graduates. Our event studies suggest graduate retention credits increased university enrollment while decreasing university dropouts within five years of their introduction.
The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Occupation Tasks and Mental Health in Canada (with Louis-Philippe Beland, Abel Brodeur and Taylor Wright)
Canadian Journal of Economics, 55(S1), pp. 214-247, 2022.
Abstract: In this paper, we document the short-term impact of COVID-19 on labour market outcomes in Canada. Following a pre-analysis plan, we investigate the negative impact of the pandemic on unemployment, labour force participation, hours and wages in Canada. We find that COVID-19 had drastic negative effects on labour market outcomes, with the largest effects for younger, not married, and less educated workers. We investigate whether the economic consequences of this pandemic were larger for certain occupations. We then built indices for whether (1) workers are relatively more exposed to disease, (2) work with proximity to coworkers, (3) are essential workers, and (4) can easily work remotely. Our estimates suggest that the impact of the pandemic was significantly more severe for workers more exposed to disease and workers that work in proximity to coworkers, while the effects are significantly less severe for essential workers and workers that can work remotely. Last, we rely on a unique survey, the Canadian Perspective Survey, and show that reported mental health is significantly lower among the most affected workers during the pandemic. We also find that those who were absent form work because of COVID-19 are more concerned with meeting their financial obligations and with losing their job than those who remain working outside of home, while those who transition from working outside the home to from home are not as concerned with job loss.
Determinants of Family Stress and Domestic Violence: Lessons from the COVID-19 Outbreak (with Louis-Philippe Beland, Abel Brodeur and Joanne Haddad)
Canadian Public Policy, 47(3), pp. 439-459, 2021.
Abstract: We study the impacts of COVID-19 on domestic violence and family stress. Our empirical analysis relies on a unique online survey, the Canadian Perspective Survey Series, which allows us to investigate the mechanisms through which COVID-19 may affect family stress and domestic violence. We find no evidence that changes in work arrangements are related to self-reported levels of family stress and violence in the home due to confinement, suggesting that remote work on a large scale does not lead to family violence. In contrast, we find that the inability to meet financial obligations and maintaining social ties significantly increase reported family stress and domestic violence. These findings are consistent with two alternative mechanisms: social isolation and decreased bargaining power for women. Last, we provide suggestive evidence that receiving financial relief does not mitigate the effect of financial worries on domestic violence and family stress. We conclude that targeted programs supporting victims of domestic violence may be more effective.
Short-Term Effect of COVID-19 on Self-Employed Workers in Canada (with Louis-Philippe Beland and Tobi Fakorede)
Canadian Public Policy, 46(S1), S66-81, 2020.
Abstract: Using the Canadian Labour Force Survey, we document the short-term impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on self-employed individuals in Canada, whom we interpret as small business owners. We document an important decrease in business ownership between February 2020 and May 2020 (−14.8 percent for incorporated and −10.1 percent for unincorporated entities). We find a substantial decrease in ownership and aggregate hours for women, immigrants, and less educated people over the same period. The occupational categories with the largest decrease are in art, culture, and recreation (−14.8 percent); in education, law, and social, community, and government services (−13.6 percent); and in sales and service occupations (−12.8 percent).
Comparing Human-Only, AI-Assisted, and AI-Led Teams on Assessing Research Reproducibility in Quantitative Social Science
(with Abel Brodeur, David Valenta, Alexandru Marcoci, Juan Pablo Aparicio, Bruno Barbarioli, Rohan Alexander, Lachlan Deer, Tom Stafford, Lars Vilhuber, Gunther Bensch et al.).
Revisions Requested at Nature
A Comment on “Delivering Remote Learning Using a Low-Tech Solution: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Bangladesh”
(with Lenka Fiala, Jack Fitzgerald, Essi Kujansuu, David Valenta, Juan Pablo Aparicio, Michael Wiebe, Matt Webb and Abel Brodeur).
Revision Requested at Journal of Political Economy: Microeconomics
Household income and household food insecurity before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: Examining the role of the federal Canada Emergency Response Benefit and Canada Recovery Benefit.
(with Andree-Anne Fafard St-Germain, Timmie Li and Herb Emery).
Revised and Resubmitted to Canadian Public Policy
Mass Reproducibility and Replicability: A New Hope (with Abel Brodeur, Nik Cook, any many others).
Abstract: This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate of fully computationally reproducible results (over 85%). Second, excluding minor issues like missing packages or broken pathways, we uncover coding errors for about 25% of studies, with some studies containing multiple errors. Third, we test the robustness of the results to 5,511 re-analyses. We find a robustness reproducibility of about 70%. Robustness reproducibility rates are relatively higher for re-analyses that introduce new data and lower for re-analyses that change the sample or the definition of the dependent variable. Fourth, 52% of re-analysis effect size estimates are smaller than the original published estimates and the average statistical significance of a re-analysis is 77% of the original. Lastly, we rely on six teams of researchers working independently to answer eight additional research questions on the determinants of robustness reproducibility. Most teams find a negative relationship between replicators' experience and reproducibility, while finding no relationship between reproducibility and the provision of intermediate or even raw data combined with the necessary cleaning codes.
Gun Licenses, Restricted Firearms, Deaths and Crime: Results from Administrative Data in Canada (with Matthew D. Webb).
Abstract: Civilian ownership of firearms is a contentious political issue. This is particularly true in Canada given the recent national handgun freeze and the buyback of many semi-automatic long guns. Prior empirical analysis on this topic is largely based on proxy measures for flows of firearms and their owners. We use national measures of firearm licenses and the total number of registered and restricted firearms collected by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) to revisit the relationships guns may have with homicides, suicides, and crime. Using fixed effects models at different geographic levels, we estimate the impacts of guns on annual deaths, suicides, and firearms-related crimes. We fail to detect any effects of our firearms variables on total deaths at the level of Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) and Census Agglomeration (CA). Firearms licenses coefficient estimates are statistically significant and positively related to first-degree murders. All of our coefficient estimates are small in magnitude, suggesting large changes in guns or licenses would be necessary to change our measures of public safety.
Canadian Small Businesses' Employees and Owners during COVID-19 (with Louis-Philippe Beland, Tobi Fakorede and Haowei Tang)
Current version: Carleton Economics Working Paper (CEWP) 20-16 (found here)
Abstract: Canadian employers are largely small businesses. Their relevance for job creation and labour demand is integral for policymakers concerned with adverse labour market outcomes resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the Canadian Labour Force Survey (LFS) we document how the self-employed, which we interpret as small business owners, and employees of small businesses are being aected by COVID-19. We find large decreases in the number of small business owners, the number of employed, and in hours worked, from February to July 2020. We also find large labour market impact on small business employees. Our research confirms increasing employment, hours worked, and small business ownership as provinces began reopening their economies in May to July 2020. Still, these improvements are often below pre-March 2020 trends with some demographic groups, such as female and immigrant small business owners, having considerably worse outcomes than their respective counterparts.
Injecting Crime? The Impact of Supervised Consumption Sites on Reported Crime in Toronto